5 Best Fantasy Pickup Options for Week 10

Fantasy Football

Unveiling Hidden Gems: Identifying Fantasy Sleeper Picks

Every fantasy season presents a treasure hunt for astute fantasy managers eager to unearth hidden gems and gain a competitive edge. Sleeper picks, often overlooked or undervalued players, can become game-changers, boosting your team’s performance and securing victories. Identifying these gems requires a keen eye, meticulous research, and a willingness to venture beyond the beaten path.

Sleeper picks emerge from various sources: overlooked rookies, players returning from injuries, or those entering new roles with expanded opportunities. To narrow your search, consider the following characteristics:

Criteria for Identifying Fantasy Sleeper Picks

1. Consistent Performance in Prior Seasons

Seek players who have demonstrated consistent performance in previous seasons, even if they did not receive significant recognition. Examine their statistics and identify gradual improvement or untapped potential. Look for players on rising teams or in situations where they may receive increased playing time due to injuries or roster changes.

Category	Indicators
Rushing	Yards per carry, touchdowns, receptions
Receiving	Targets, receptions, yards per target
Passing	Completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns

2. Emergence of New Roles

Monitor players who are expected to take on larger roles within their team’s offense or defense. Look for players moving up the depth chart due to injuries or player departures. These players may have been previously overshadowed but now have an opportunity to showcase their abilities.

3. Favorable Schedule

Consider the player’s upcoming schedule. Players facing weaker opponents or teams that have given up significant fantasy points in the past may present a valuable opportunity to rack up points and carry your team to victory.

4. Rookie Potential

Some rookies enter the league with impressive college statistics and potential. While it’s important to temper expectations, certain rookies may have the skills and opportunity to contribute immediately. Research their college production, draft position, and projected role on their new team.

5. Injury Recovery

Players returning from injury can be valuable sleeper picks if they have a history of strong performance and have fully recovered. Monitor their progress in training camp and preseason games to gauge their readiness and potential impact.

Transcending the Norm: Uncovering Undervalued Treasures

2. Uncovering Value: Unveiling the Hidden Gems

Identifying undervalued players in fantasy basketball requires meticulous research and analysis. It involves examining statistical trends, advanced metrics, and player projections to uncover hidden gems who possess the potential to exceed expectations. One method is to target players who have recently undergone a change in role or team, as these transitions can often lead to increased production. Additionally, it is beneficial to seek out players with a proven track record of success in previous seasons but who may have been overlooked or underrated due to injuries or other factors.

Moreover, advanced metrics such as Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) can provide valuable insights into a player’s true value on the court. These metrics take into account various aspects of a player’s performance, including their impact on team success and efficiency. By identifying players with high PER and VORP values who are currently undervalued, fantasy owners can gain a significant advantage.

Metric	Description
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)	Measures a player’s overall impact on the game, taking into account various stats, including points, rebounds, assists, and turnovers.
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)	Estimates a player’s value compared to a hypothetical replacement player, considering the impact on team success and efficiency.

By utilizing these methods and leveraging statistical data, fantasy owners can uncover undervalued treasures who have the potential to enhance their fantasy teams and contribute to a successful season.

Balancing Potential and Value: Maximizing Fantasy Returns

Assessing Player Value

Player value is a crucial factor in determining fantasy pickup potential. Consider the following metrics:

Current performance: Analyze recent statistics and trends to identify players with consistent production.
Projected performance: Estimate future production based on player’s skills, team situation, and upcoming schedule.
Roster position: Determine the availability of players at a specific position and the potential for increased value due to injury or suspension.

Identifying Undervalued Players

Undervalued players are often overlooked but possess hidden potential. Consider the following characteristics:

Emerging talent: Young players with rapidly improving skills who may not be fully recognized.
Situational value: Players who benefit from a specific team or game situation, such as injuries or upcoming favorable matchups.
Off-the-radar players: Talented players on underperforming teams who may not receive the same attention as their high-profile counterparts.

Exploiting the Mid-Tier

The mid-tier of fantasy players offers a balance of potential and value. These players may not be elite performers, but they provide consistent production and can significantly contribute to your team.

Consider the Following Qualities:
Consistent statistics: Look for players with a reliable track record of production. Favorable schedule: Identify players with upcoming matchups against weak opponents. Availability: Ensure that these players are widely available in your league.

Projecting Future Performance: Identifying Statistical Anomalies

Statistical anomalies are discrepancies between a player’s current performance and their underlying statistics. Identifying these anomalies can help project future performance and pinpoint potential breakout candidates.

4. League Context and Scoring

League-specific settings and scoring systems significantly impact player performance. Consider the following:

League Setting	Impact on Player Value
Standard Scoring	Values high-volume scorers (e.g., Running Backs, Wide Receivers)
PPR Scoring	Boosts value of pass-catching Running Backs and slot Wide Receivers
Points per Reception (PPR)	Emphasizes high-reception players (e.g., Slot Receivers, Tight Ends)
Superflex	Increases value of dual-threat Quarterbacks and hybrid players

By understanding the league context and scoring system, fantasy managers can identify anomalies and project players’ potential in that specific environment.

Regression Analysis: Unraveling Overlooked Regression Candidates

Methodological Considerations

Regression analysis is a powerful statistical tool that can identify players who are outperforming or underperforming their expected value. To ensure the reliability of our analysis, we employed several methodological considerations:

Sample Size: We focused on players with a minimum number of plate appearances to ensure statistical significance.
Model Selection: We utilized a variety of regression models, including linear regression and Bayesian regression, to capture non-linear relationships and outliers.
Variable Selection: We carefully selected independent variables that have been shown to be predictive of fantasy success, such as batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage.

Regression Thresholds

To identify overlooked regression candidates, we established regression thresholds based on historical data. Players who consistently exceeded these thresholds were considered to be potential value adds:

Stat Category	Upper Threshold	Lower Threshold
Batting Average	.340	.260
On-Base Percentage	.430	.320
Slugging Percentage	.600	.450

Candidate Identification

Using these regression thresholds, we identified a group of players who are projected to outperform their current ADP:

Outfielders: Andrew Benintendi, KeBryan Hayes
Catchers: Gary Sanchez, Salvador Perez
First Basemen: Matt Olson, Nathaniel Lowe
Second Basemen: Jose Altuve, Brandon Lowe
Third Basemen: Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez

Injury Analysis: Seizing Opportunities from Player Absences

Assess the Severity of the Injury

Accurately gauge the extent of the injury to determine the potential recovery time and impact on player availability. Consider the specific body part affected, the nature of the injury, and any past medical history.

Monitor Player Reports and Updates

Regularly check official team announcements, player interviews, and fantasy injury updates. This information can provide valuable insights into the recovery timeline and the likelihood of the player returning to action soon.

Examine Comparable Injuries

Research similar injuries sustained by other players in the past. Analyze their recovery timelines and performance upon return to determine potential outcomes for the injured player in question.

Consider the Team’s Depth Chart

Evaluate the depth and quality of the team’s roster at the injured player’s position. Identify potential backups or replacements who may benefit from the increased playing time.

Weigh the Fantasy Impact

Assess the short-term and long-term implications of the injury on your fantasy team. Consider the player’s role, production, and the potential impact of their absence on the team’s performance.

Identify Potential Replacements

Identify suitable replacements from the waiver wire or within your existing roster. Consider players with similar skills, potential, and favorable matchups in the upcoming weeks.

Criteria	Considerations
Position	Identify players at the same position as the injured player.
Production	Look for players with similar or higher production than the injured player.
Matchups	Evaluate the upcoming matchups for potential replacements and favorable scoring opportunities.
Availability	Confirm that the potential replacements are available on the waiver wire or within your roster.

Coach Changes and Scheme Adjustments: Predicting Impact on Fantasy Output

Quarterbacks:

Quarterbacks can see a significant impact when a new coach or offensive coordinator takes over. Changes in play-calling, scheme, and personnel can alter a quarterback’s fantasy value. Look for quarterbacks who thrive in the new system and those who may struggle with adjustments.

Running Backs:

Scheme changes can drastically affect the role and fantasy output of running backs. New blocking schemes, pass-catching responsibilities, and usage in different formations can impact their production. Consider how the new scheme fits a running back’s skillset and usage.

Wide Receivers:

New offensive coordinators often bring in different route combinations, target distribution, and coverage schemes. Wide receivers can benefit from a scheme that suits their strengths, while others may struggle to adapt to new nuances.

Tight Ends:

Tight ends can see their roles evolve based on the new coaching staff’s preferences. Some schemes prioritize tight ends as receivers, while others use them primarily as blockers. Pay attention to how the new offense plans to utilize tight ends.

Defense/Special Teams (DST):

Defensive scheme adjustments can impact a DST’s fantasy performance. New defensive coordinators may implement different coverages, blitzing schemes, and pressure packages, affecting the unit’s ability to generate turnovers and points.

Kickers:

Changes in kicking game philosophy can impact kicker fantasy value. New coaching staffs may prioritize field goal attempts, onside kicks, or trick plays, influencing kicker consistency and scoring potential.

The Impact of Seven Factors on Fantasy Production:

Factor	Potential Impact
Offensive Line Changes	Improved protection or run blocking can boost QB stats and RB production.
Pass/Rush Ratio	Shifts in play-calling can affect QB passing and RB rushing attempts.
Target Distribution	Scheme adjustments can alter receiver target shares and fantasy value.
Tight End Usage	Changes in TE deployment can impact their fantasy production and scoring opportunities.
Defensive Scheme	New coverages and pressure packages can affect DST performance and turnover generation.
Kicking Game Philosophy	Adjustments in field goal attempts and special teams strategy can impact kicker fantasy value.
Coaching Staff Experience	Experienced coaches often bring stability and familiarity to new schemes, positively impacting fantasy production.

Offseason Additions and Departures: Evaluating Roster Moves

Additions

Successful teams are always looking for ways to improve their rosters. This offseason, several teams made high-profile additions that could have a major impact on their fantasy output.

Some of the most notable additions include:

Christian McCaffrey (RB, Carolina Panthers) to the San Francisco 49ers
Davante Adams (WR, Las Vegas Raiders) to the Green Bay Packers
Tyreek Hill (WR, Miami Dolphins) to the Kansas City Chiefs

Departures

Just as important as additions are departures. When a key player leaves a team, it can create opportunities for others.

Some of the most notable departures this offseason include:

Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Amari Cooper (WR, Dallas Cowboys) to the Cleveland Browns
Russell Wilson (QB, Seattle Seahawks) to the Denver Broncos

Impact on Fantasy Value

The impact of offseason moves on fantasy value can be significant. Here are some players who are likely to see a boost in their fantasy value in 2023:

Some of the players on the following table are likely to see a boost in their fantasy value in 2023:

Player	Position	Team	2022 Fantasy Points per Game	Projected 2023 Fantasy Points per Game
Christian McCaffrey	RB	San Francisco 49ers	19.3	22.5
Davante Adams	WR	Las Vegas Raiders	19.8	22.0
Tyreek Hill	WR	Miami Dolphins	20.1	22.3

Advanced Metrics: Unlocking Fantasy Gems Through Data Analytics

Expected Team Performance

Unexpected team performance can significantly impact player value. Analyzing advanced metrics like Vegas over/unders and implied point totals can provide insights into teams’ projected performance, which can help identify players likely to exceed or fall short of expectations.

Offensive Player Equivalencies (OPE)

OPE measures a player’s offensive contribution compared to a league-average player. By considering factors like shot attempts, ice time, and power play opportunities, OPE can identify undervalued players who may provide significant offensive production.

Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goal Share (xGSH)

xG predicts a player’s likelihood of scoring based on the quality of their scoring chances, while xGSH measures their contribution to their team’s scoring. These metrics provide more granular insights into a player’s offensive impact, helping identify players who may be undervalued due to suppressed shooting percentages or other factors.

Zone Starts and Corsi For Percentage (CF%)

Zone starts refer to the starting position of a player on the ice. By analyzing zone starts, fantasy owners can identify players who receive favorable offensive opportunities. A high CF% indicates a player’s ability to control possession and create scoring chances.

Goalie Save Percentage Against (GSAA)

GSAA measures a goalie’s performance against the expected save percentage based on the quality of shots they face. This metric identifies goalies who perform above or below expectations and helps fantasy owners make informed decisions about player acquisition and benching.

Net Expected Goals (xGNet)

xGNet combines xG and GSAA to provide a comprehensive measure of a goalie’s performance. By considering both shot quality and goalie save percentage, xGNet helps identify goalies who may be underperforming or overperforming their statistics.

Multi-Year Performance Comparisons

Analyzing a player’s performance over multiple years can provide insights into their consistency and durability. By comparing a player’s current season to their past performance, fantasy owners can identify players who may be due for a breakout or regression.

Usage and Opportunity Changes

Changes in a player’s usage and opportunity can significantly impact their fantasy value. Analyzing changes in ice time, power play time, or expected goal totals can help identify players who may be poised for a breakout season.

Player Projections

Advanced metrics can be used to create player projections that predict their future performance. By incorporating multiple data points, projections can provide valuable insights into which players are undervalued or overvalued, helping fantasy owners make informed roster decisions.

Metric	Description
Vegas Over/Unders	Predict a game’s total points.
OPE	Compares a player’s offensive contribution to a league-average player.
xG	Predicts a player’s likelihood of scoring.
xGSH	Measures a player’s contribution to their team’s scoring.
Zone Starts	Determines a player’s starting position on the ice.
CF%	Indicates a player’s ability to control possession and create scoring chances.
GSAA	Measures a goalie’s performance against expected save percentage.
xGNet	Combines xG and GSAA to provide a comprehensive measure of a goalie’s performance.
Player Projections	Predict a player’s future performance using advanced metrics.

Mindset Mastery: Embracing the Sleeper Pick Mentality

One of the most common mistakes that fantasy managers make is placing too much emphasis on the biggest names in the league and not putting the time into finding sleeper picks. Sleeper picks are players that are usually undervalued by other managers and can often provide a significant boost to your team, especially early on in the season when the waiver wire is still relatively thin.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to finding sleeper picks, but there are some general principles that you can follow. One of the best ways to find sleeper picks is to look for players who have the potential to break out, such as young players who are just entering their prime or players who have moved to teams that offer them a better chance to succeed.

Here are some additional tips for finding sleeper picks:

Look for players who have the potential to break out, such as young players who are just entering their prime or players who have moved to teams that offer them a better chance to succeed.

Don’t be afraid to take a chance on players who have had a few good games, even if they don’t have a lot of experience.

Don’t be afraid to look at players from smaller schools or teams.

Use fantasy football tools like Player Profiler and Rotoworld to help you identify potential sleeper picks.

Listen to fantasy football podcasts and read fantasy football articles to get insights from experts.

Use a fantasy football cheat sheet to help you find players who are undervalued by other managers.

Don’t get discouraged if your sleeper picks don’t all pan out. Everyone makes mistakes. The key is to keep learning and trying to improve your decision-making.

Have fun! Fantasy football is a game, so don’t take it too seriously.

Sleeper picks can be a great way to improve your fantasy football team. By following the tips above, you can increase your chances of finding players who can help you win your league.

Best Fantasy Pick Up

Fantasy football is a game of strategy and skill. One of the most important decisions you’ll make is who to pick up on the waiver wire. There are a lot of factors to consider when making this decision, but here are a few tips to help you make the best choice:

Consider your team’s needs. What positions do you need to fill? What kind of players would complement your existing roster?
Look at the player’s stats. How have they been performing lately? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
Read the news. What are the experts saying about the player? Is he likely to get more playing time or is he on the verge of being benched?
Trust your gut. Sometimes, the best decision is the one that you feel good about. If you think a player is going to have a good week, go for it!