When drafting a fantasy football team, there are a few different strategies that you can use. One popular strategy is to draft players who are undervalued and have the potential to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP). These players are often referred to as “sleepers.”
Identifying sleeper quarterbacks can be especially important, as the position is often difficult to predict. In 2021, there were a number of quarterbacks who outperformed their ADP, including Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa. These quarterbacks were all able to provide their fantasy owners with a significant advantage, and they helped to lead their teams to success.
One player who could be a sleeper quarterback in 2023 is Geno Smith. Smith had a breakout season in 2022, leading the Seattle Seahawks to a surprising playoff berth. He finished the season with 4,282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Smith is still only 32 years old, and he has shown that he has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. He is currently being drafted as the QB34, but he has the potential to finish the season as a top-12 quarterback, the same tier as Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers.
Another player who could be a sleeper quarterback in 2023 is Trey Lance. Lance is entering his third season in the NFL, and he is expected to take over as the full-time starter for the San Francisco 49ers. Lance is a dynamic playmaker who can make plays with his arm and his legs. He rushed for 168 yards and four touchdowns in 2022, and he also passed for 603 yards and five touchdowns. Lance has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and he is currently being drafted as the QB21. He could provide his fantasy owners with a lot of value at his current ADP.
The Art of Sleeper QB Identification
The cornerstone of a successful fantasy football team is a consistent and reliable quarterback. While conventional wisdom may lead to the drafting of established elite QBs, there lies a wealth of potential in identifying sleeper QBs. These QBs, often overlooked or undervalued, possess the traits and attributes necessary to produce elite-level numbers, dramatically increasing the competitiveness of your team.
Factors to Consider
The identification of sleeper QBs requires a meticulous consideration of a multitude of factors:
- Past Performance: Examine the quarterback’s previous statistical output, focusing on indicators such as completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown-to-interception ratio. Pay particular attention to recent trends, as they provide a clearer picture of their current trajectory.
- Offensive System: The offensive system employed by the team plays a pivotal role in the QB’s success. Look for offenses that prioritize passing and provide their QBs with a high volume of opportunities to throw.
- Coaching Changes: Shifts in coaching personnel can significantly impact a QB’s performance. Explore the new coach’s track record and offensive philosophy to determine if they are known for maximizing QB production.
- Schedule: The strength of a QB’s schedule is often an overlooked factor. Scrutinize the upcoming opponents and identify favorable matchups that could boost the QB’s stats.
- Draft Capital and Cost: Sleeper QBs typically come at a discounted price compared to established starters. By investing less draft capital, you can free up resources to acquire other valuable players at other positions.
Sleeper QB Examples
| Year | Sleeper QB | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence | 309.54 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | 346.76 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert | 377.20 |
Unlocking Value through Underrated Passers
When assembling a fantasy football squad, savvy managers seek undervalued assets that can provide a substantial return on investment. One such area to exploit is the quarterback position, where certain passers may be overlooked despite possessing the potential for elite production.
Identifying Underrated Quarterbacks
Underrated quarterbacks can be found by examining their underlying statistics and projecting their performance in the upcoming season. Factors to consider include:
- Advanced passing metrics, such as expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)
- Historical performance in similar situations (e.g., a quarterback moving to a team with a strong offensive line)
- Changes in the team’s offense or supporting cast
By identifying quarterbacks who may have been undervalued by the fantasy community, managers can gain a significant edge over their competition.
Evaluating Passer Impact in High-Powered Offenses
| Quarterback | Team | 2022 Points Scored |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 565 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 560 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 447 |
Quarterbacks who play in high-scoring offenses have an inherent advantage in fantasy football. These offenses typically generate more passing yards and touchdowns, providing their signal-callers with ample opportunities to accumulate points.
When evaluating quarterbacks in high-powered offenses, managers should consider the following factors:
- Team’s offensive scheme and tendency to pass the ball
- Quality of the team’s receiving corps and offensive line
- Quarterback’s ability to spread the ball around and make plays outside the pocket
By identifying quarterbacks who thrive in pass-happy offenses, managers can improve their chances of securing a high-scoring passer at a more affordable price.
Draft Day Diamonds: Unearthing Hidden Signal-Callers
Prospecting for Fantasy Aces
Draft day is a time for bold predictions and calculated risks. While the established stars of the gridiron garner much of the attention, savvy fantasy owners know that uncovering hidden gems can be the key to a championship-caliber squad. Draft day diamonds are unheralded quarterbacks who possess the potential to surprise and deliver unexpected value.
The Attributes of a Sleeper QB
When evaluating sleeper quarterbacks, several key attributes to look for include:
* Arm Strength: A strong arm allows a quarterback to make all the necessary throws, giving him the ability to exploit the entire field.
* Accuracy: Precision is paramount for any quarterback, as it maximizes the chances of completing passes and moving the chains.
* Mobility: The ability to extend plays with his legs can provide a significant advantage, especially in fantasy football where scrambling yards and rushing touchdowns are rewarded.
* Offensive Scheme: A quarterback’s success is heavily influenced by the offensive scheme surrounding him. Look for quarterbacks in pass-heavy offenses with a solid offensive line and talented pass-catchers.
* Opportunity: A clear path to the starting lineup is crucial. Seek quarterbacks who have won the starting job or are in a position to do so in the upcoming season.
Sleeper QB Candidates
The following quarterbacks have the potential to emerge as draft day diamonds in 2023:
| Player | Team | Key Attributes |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Strong arm, high accuracy, mobility |
| Anthony Richardson | Florida Gators | Elite arm strength, athleticism |
| Sam Hartman | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Impressive passing stats, accurate and mobile |
| Malik Cunningham | Louisville Cardinals | Dual-threat ability, explosive arm |
| Tanner McKee | Stanford Cardinal | Prototype size, strong arm |
Statistical Indicators for Sleeper QB Discovery
Early-season metrics
Early-season metrics can provide valuable insights into a quarterback’s potential. Factors such as completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown-to-interception ratio can help identify players who are performing well and may be poised for breakout seasons.
Advanced metrics
Advanced metrics like adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and passer rating can provide a more nuanced view of a quarterback’s performance. These metrics account for factors such as the difficulty of the defenses faced and can help identify players who are producing efficiently despite playing against tough competition.
Situational performance
Situational performance can be a key indicator of a quarterback’s ability to perform under pressure. Factors such as red-zone efficiency, third-down conversion rate, and performance in the fourth quarter can help identify players who are able to deliver in critical moments.
Offense scheme
The offensive scheme a quarterback operates in can play a significant role in their success. Factors such as the pass-to-run ratio, the number of play-action plays called, and the presence of skilled pass-catchers can all impact a quarterback’s statistical output.
Other factors
In addition to statistical indicators, other factors that can contribute to a quarterback’s breakout potential include:
- Age
- Experience
- Coachability
| Factor | Significance |
|---|---|
| Age | Younger quarterbacks often have a higher ceiling for improvement |
| Experience | More experienced quarterbacks tend to be more consistent |
| Coachability | Quarterbacks who are willing to learn and improve are more likely to have success |
Analyzing Team Situation for QB Upside
1. Team Needs and Offensive Line Stability
Assess team weaknesses and how they might impact QB performance. A strong offensive line can protect the QB, allowing them to execute plays more effectively.
2. Play-Calling and Scheme
Consider the offensive coordinator’s play-calling tendencies and the scheme in place. Some schemes favor certain QB styles, while others may hinder their production.
3. Weapons and Target Share
Evaluate the quality and depth of the team’s receiving corps. A high target share for the QB can boost their fantasy potential, while a limited target pool can cap their production.
4. Game Script
Examine the team’s projected game script. High-scoring games favor QBs, as do situations where the team is forced to pass more due to trailing.
5. Pace and Scoring Environment
Analyze the team’s pace of play and the overall scoring environment. QBs in offenses that play quickly and score frequently have the potential for higher fantasy production.
| Team | Pace of Play (Adjusted per Game) | Points per Game (Allowed) |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 64.6 | 21.0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 62.7 | 22.3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 61.4 | 23.1 |
| Detroit Lions | 60.9 | 28.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 58.7 | 29.1 |
The Importance of Fit and Opportunity
Identifying sleeper quarterbacks (QBs) in fantasy football requires evaluating factors beyond individual statistics. Fit and opportunity play a crucial role in determining a QB’s potential for success.
Fit
Consider the QB’s scheme and supporting cast. A QB who excels in a pass-heavy, up-tempo offense with a strong receiving corps will have a better chance of producing fantasy points than one who operates in a conservative, run-dominated system.
Opportunity
Opportunity stems from playing time, game script, and the strength of the defense. A QB who is expected to start a full season and lead an offense with a favorable schedule will have more opportunities to accumulate fantasy points.
Additional Considerations for Sleeper QBs
Here are some additional factors to consider when identifying sleeper QBs:
Age and Experience
Younger QBs with limited starting experience can have higher upside but also carry more risk.
Health
Injury history can impact a QB’s availability and consistency.
Competition
If a QB has significant competition for playing time, their fantasy value may be limited.
Contract Situation
A QB’s contract status can provide insight into the team’s commitment to them and their potential for future success.
Bye Week
Consider a QB’s bye week when drafting a fantasy team to avoid roster holes during that time.
Evaluating Rookie QBs for Fantasy Potential
Evaluating rookie QBs for fantasy potential can be a daunting task. There are so many factors to consider, and it can be difficult to know which ones are most important. Here are a few key things to look for when evaluating rookie QBs:
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College Production
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Arm Strength
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Accuracy
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Mobility
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Leadership
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Situation
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Draft Capital
One of the best indicators of future success in the NFL is college production. Look for QBs who have put up big numbers in college, especially in terms of passing yards and touchdowns. However, it is important to remember that college stats do not always translate to NFL success, players need to be evaluated individually and considering the level of competition in that conference and division as well as how the scheme they ran in college will translate at the NFL level.
Arm strength is another important factor to consider when evaluating rookie QBs. QBs with strong arms can make all the throws necessary to succeed in the NFL. They can also fit the ball into tight windows and throw deep passes with accuracy. Arm strength is an important but overrated physical skill to look for in young Qbs, as accuracy and decision making is much more important at the NFL level.
Accuracy is another key factor to look for when evaluating rookie QBs. QBs who can consistently put the ball where they want it are more likely to be successful in the NFL. Accuracy is a very important physical skill to look for in young Qbs and should be prioritized over arm strength.
Mobility is becoming increasingly important for QBs in the NFL. QBs who can run can extend plays and make big plays with their feet. Mobility is not considered as important as the aforementioned skills, but it is a nice bonus to look for in a young QB.
Leadership is another important factor to consider when evaluating rookie QBs. QBs who are leaders can motivate their teammates and help them perform at their best. Leadership is a very difficult skill to evaluate and is often overlooked when evaluating young quarterbacks, but it is an important factor as it will ultimately impact how far they go in the NFL.
The situation a QB is entering can have a big impact on his fantasy potential. QBs who are drafted into teams with strong offenses and good supporting casts are more likely to be successful than QBs who are drafted into teams with weak offenses and poor supporting casts. Other factors in looking at a QBs situation include offensive line play, which can have a big impact on how much time the QB has to throw, and the scheme the QB is playing in, as the scheme can favor the QB or the running game.
The draft capital a QB is selected with can be a good indicator of his future potential. QBs who are drafted in the first round are typically considered to have more upside than QBs who are drafted in the later rounds. However, there are many examples of later round QBs that have found success in the NFL. Draft capital is a good way to gauge how NFL teams view a young QB, but it is not a guarantee of success.
Utilizing Advanced Metrics to Find Fantasy Gold
Fantasy football is a game of skill and luck, but there are certain metrics that can help you find sleepers who can give you a leg up on the competition.
One of the most important metrics to consider is air yards. Air yards are a measure of how many yards a quarterback throws the ball downfield. Quarterbacks with high air yards tend to have more big-play potential, which can lead to more touchdowns and fantasy points.
Another important metric to consider is yards per attempt (YPA). YPA is a measure of how efficiently a quarterback throws the ball. Quarterbacks with high YPA tend to be more accurate and efficient, which can lead to more completions and fantasy points.
Finally, it’s important to consider a quarterback’s fantasy points per game (FPPG). FPPG is a measure of how many fantasy points a quarterback averages per game. Quarterbacks with high FPPG are obviously more valuable in fantasy football.
By utilizing these advanced metrics, you can find sleepers who can help you win your fantasy football league.
8. Other Factors to Consider
In addition to the advanced metrics mentioned above, there are other factors to consider when evaluating quarterbacks for fantasy football.
| Factor | Description |
|---|---|
| Offense | The quality of a quarterback’s offense can have a big impact on his fantasy production. Quarterbacks who play for high-scoring offenses tend to have more opportunities to put up big numbers. |
| Schedule | A quarterback’s schedule can also affect his fantasy production. Quarterbacks who play against weak defenses tend to have more favorable matchups, which can lead to more fantasy points. |
| Health | A quarterback’s health is also an important factor to consider. Quarterbacks who are injured or dealing with nagging injuries may not be able to play at their best, which can hurt their fantasy production. |
Building a Sleeper QB-Focused Fantasy Strategy
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9. Monitor Bye Weeks and Injuries
Tracking bye weeks and injuries is crucial for sleeper QBs. A starting QB might miss a game due to injury or the team’s bye, opening up an opportunity for a sleeper to step in and produce. Pay attention to the bye weeks of the top QBs and monitor the injury reports for potential replacements. If a sleeper QB is facing a favorable matchup in a week when other top options are out, they could be a valuable starting option.
| Week | Top QBs on Bye | Potential Sleeper Replacements |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen | Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff |
| 5 | Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers | Justin Fields, Trey Lance |
| 9 | Tom Brady, Kyler Murray | Geno Smith, Daniel Jones |
By keeping track of bye weeks and injuries, you can identify sleeper QBs who have the potential for a big week and capitalize on their value.
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Case Studies: Success Stories of Sleeper QB Performances
Case Study 1: Matthew Stafford (2021)
In 2021, Matthew Stafford had one of the best seasons of his career, going from a low-end QB2 in fantasy to a top-five performer. He threw for 4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just 17 interceptions. Stafford led his team to the Super Bowl that year, winning the championship.
Case Study 2: Josh Allen (2020)
Josh Allen was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. After a slow start to his career, Allen broke out in 2020, throwing for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He led his team to the AFC Championship Game that season, where they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Case Study 3: Joe Burrow (2020)
Joe Burrow has been a fantasy football superstar since entering the league in 2020. In his first season, Burrow passed for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns. He also set an NFL record with a 68.3% completion percentage for a rookie quarterback. Despite playing for a struggling Bengals team, Burrow has proven to be a valuable asset in fantasy football.
Case Study 4: Kirk Cousins (2019)
Kirk Cousins entered the 2019 season as a low-end QB2, but ended up as a top-10 performer. He threw for 4,298 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Cousins led his team to an 11-5 record, winning the NFC North division.
Case Study 5: Ryan Tannehill (2019)
Ryan Tannehill has been a fantasy football sleeper since taking over as the Titans’ starting quarterback in 2019. In his first season as a starter, Tannehill threw for 2,742 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He led his team to a 9-7 record, winning the AFC South division.
Case Study 6: Dak Prescott (2016)
Dak Prescott had one of the best rookie seasons by a quarterback in NFL history in 2016. He threw for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Prescott led his team to a 13-3 record, winning the NFC East division. He was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year that season.
Case Study 7: Andy Dalton (2015)
Andy Dalton had a breakout season in 2015, throwing for 3,928 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. He led his team to a 12-4 record, winning the AFC North division. Dalton was named to the Pro Bowl that season.
Case Study 8: Matt Ryan (2016)
Matt Ryan had a monster season in 2016. He threw for 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions. Ryan led his team to an 11-5 record, winning the NFC South division. He was named the NFL’s MVP that season.
Case Study 9: Carson Wentz (2017)
Carson Wentz had a breakout season in 2017. He threw for 3,296 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Wentz led his team to an 11-5 record, winning the NFC East division. He was named to the Pro Bowl that season.
Case Study 10: Lamar Jackson (2019)
Lamar Jackson had a historic season in 2019. He threw for 3,127 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Jackson also rushed for 1,206 yards and 7 touchdowns. He led his team to a 14-2 record, winning the AFC North division. Jackson was named the NFL’s MVP that season.
| Year | QB | Team | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 4,886 | 41 | 17 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 4,544 | 37 | 10 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 4,611 | 34 | 14 |
| 2019 | Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings | 4,298 | 30 | 10 |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | 2,742 | 22 | 6 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 3,667 | 23 | 4 |
| 2015 | Andy Dalton | Cincinnati Bengals | 3,928 | 33 | 18 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | 4,944 | 38 | 7 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz | Philadelphia Eagles | 3,296 | 33 | 7 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 3,127 | 36 | 6 |
Best Sleeper QBs for Fantasy Football
Sleeper quarterbacks in fantasy football are players who are not expected to produce elite numbers but have the potential to outperform their average draft position (ADP). These players can provide significant value to fantasy owners who are looking for a bargain at the quarterback position.
When identifying sleeper quarterbacks, it is important to consider factors such as their team’s offense, their individual skill set, and their ADP. Players who are projected to be starters for high-scoring teams and who have shown signs of improvement in their play should be considered as potential sleepers.
Here are a few sleeper quarterbacks to consider for the 2023 fantasy football season:
* Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
* Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
* Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
* Mac Jones, New England Patriots
